What were we thinking? The US goes into a manufactured Iraq war, destabilizes the country, throws out a former friend-turned-foe and then goes home.
What do you think is going to happen? In Iraq’s case the tribal wars that have been raging forever come out in the open… and re-destabilize.
And that’s where we are now.
Iraq War One: George HW Bush guards American oil supply in Kuwait by creating a fake international alliance and preventing the invention of Provence 19. But in the end, Saddam Hussein is still standing.
Iraq War Two: Dubya decides to show Poppy how to do it and does it. Another ruse of course. Weapons of mass destruction, chemical weapons, atomic weapons. No weapons.
But we somehow trip over Saddam Hussein’s residential coffin in the desert, pull him up and execute him.
Then a few years later, to the shock and awe of everyone, the intra-Muslim war that’s been burbling along since Muhammad was a boy boils to the surface. Quick, which group is the bad guys?
Okay. We figure that out right quick.
Now what do we do? We still need the oil and we still have American men and women in harm’s way?
Easy answer: send troops. Oh, but wait. We’re all tied up in Afghanistan and maybe Pakistan and we’re all waiting for Iran to drop the other sandal.
These little land wars tend not to take turns. They don’t stand on line for the chance to be our enemy of the moment.
What’s Obama do? He does what he ALWAYS does: he makes a pretty speech. No more troops. But we’re going to protect our interests in Iraq. With our allies, the famous Bush coalition.
What does that mean?
Iraq War III.
These guys may not wait their turn to commence firing. But they do TALK to each other.
The first thing you learn in Military Science class is don’t fight a war on two fronts. Pick one. Outnumber the other side three to one minimum. Presto, no more war. Well, maybe not “presto.” But at least it’s a fighting chance.
Good thing some world leaders figure they’re above Science. Hitler, for example. Fighting in western Europe and on the Russian front at the same time? How’d that work out for you, Adolf?
In our favor: the supply lines are all in place and well broken in. The troops are available without a lot of moving and shaking, though not enough for that three-to-one ratio.
It’ll take time for this to boil over. Long enough so that you can pick a random 15 year old and tell him “In case you don’t come back, thank you for your service.”
I’m Wes Richards. My opinions are my own but you’re welcome to them. ®
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© WR 2014