Memorial Day Retrospective

248 Memorial Day Retrospective

This should have been said a few days ago, Memorial Day. We don’t understand how this works. Or, we didn’t until now:

On Memorial Day, the Tomb of the Unknowns opens up and if the ghost inside sees his shadow, we have six more years of war.

It was sunny. The ghost saw his shadow. Looks like we’re in Iraq for awhile, yet.

They don’t put this ceremony on television. They should. And they should name the ghost. Arlington Al or Arlington Abe or Virginia Vic.

So Vic saw his shadow and now, more war. Maybe we should try again on July 4^th.

We can stretch this idea a bit. Apply it to most of the holidays.

On Labor Day, at the tomb of Samuel Gompers, we get to find out if we have six more years of diminishing union membership.

On Thanksgiving Day at the Tomb of the Unknown Turkey we get an advance look at grocery prices.

That kind of thing.

We Americans love predictions. Most of them are wrong. But we love them. (More about this at www.westradamus.com.)

Notice how most forecasting – from the weather to the direction of the stock market – turns out off the mark. Even those that can be fudged.

Like corporate earnings forecasts.

Forecasters of THIS ilk have learned some hard lessons. Be accurate and Wall St. punishes your stock. Err toward the conservative and Wall St. punishes your stock. Err toward the optimistic and Wall St. punishes your stock if you’re right and kills it if you’re wrong.

The so-called “independent” analysts have it even cushier. When they’re wrong, they just say their predictions were misinterpreted. They continue to collect their seven to nine figure salaries and bonuses and Wall St. punishes the stock.

Still, we eagerly await the weather report, the earnings estimate report, the tax revenue earnings estimate, the horoscope, the tarot reading and all the guessing about who will win the Oscar, the Emmy, the Tony, the Nobel Peace Prize and the Moote Pointe Hog Calling Contest… The Indy 500, the Belmont Stakes, the Employee of the Month Award at Wendy’s. The spelling bee, the best marks in the graduating class, the next touchdown.

Part of this is the inborn American optimism: Things are going to get brighter.

Part of this is the American reluctance to live in the present.

Part of this is the American “need” to get an edge over the next guy or the Chinese or the Russians.

(Notice, we’re no longer interested in getting an edge over the Japanese!)

About 35 years ago, a friend, Izzy (yes, that’s his real name,) closed up his shop on MacDougal St. and went to a country where he didn’t know a word of the language, Sweden, where he lives happily to this day.

No one predicted that.

So, some things really DO come from out of left field.

But most of the stuff we look at and try to turn into a palm reading or a phrenology session doesn’t mean much.

But the Ghost of the Unknown DID see his shadow, so it’s pretty safe to say we’re not leaving Iraq any time soon.

I'm Wes Richards, my opinions are my own, but you're welcome to them.

(c) 2007 WJR

Faking Precision

#247 Faking Precision

This is really, really cool. You can fake precision using real numbers and no one will much think about your trickery.

Here’s a quote from the label of a waterless hand sanitizer bottle: “Kills 99.99% of Most Common Germs That May Make You Sick.”

Wow, powerful stuff, right? Zaps pretty much everything dangerous. A virtual instant sterilization. Only .01% left when you’re finished.

Maybe.

But look at it closely.

“Kills 99.99% of most common germs…”

“Most” can mean just over half. Say 50.000001% So, really, this stuff can kill about 99% of about half” So, that a more precise rendering would be “kills about half” of “common germs that may make you sick.”

But what is COMMON? And what does “MAY” make you sick mean? If these germs may make you sick, they also may not make you sick.

And while we’re at it, what does “sick” mean? Are we talking about Yellow Fever? Or maybe a little bit of itchiness? Are we talking about cancer? Or maybe a sniffle?

The thing sounds downright scientific. But there are so many variables, the figure means 100.00% of nothing. (or 0% of everything.)

So, here we have an example of hiding behind number-supported imprecision. But it’s only one example.

Here’s another, the famed Dow Jones Industrial Average. This is calculated by taking the closing prices of 30 stocks, adding them together and divided by 30, right? Wrong. The DJIA is “weighted.” Stocks are given values over and above their actual price. That’s why when you add up the stock prices and divide by 30, you get nothing like what Dow reports as the day’s closing figure.

How about your body temperature? It’s 98.6, right? Normal. But not always. Some people are a little higher or a little lower most of the time and they’ve learned not to panic after reading the thermometer.

We won’t get into the way surveys are taken, because that’s too long and complicated for this venue. But suffice it to say asking “are you willing to spend $120 million on a new school building?” will not elicit the same percentage of “yes” answers as “do you want your children to have a good education in better surroundings than they now have?”

And “do you want to win the war on terror?” will not get the same “yes” votes as “should we send more Americans to fight in Iraq?”

This example should ring true: “The temperature is 87 degrees.” Very precise. Except also meaningless, because chances are you can’t feel the difference between 85 and 89.

One well known media company has a complex formula for determining the value of employee bonuses. The formula is used to determine the value of something akin to a stock certificate. But the number of these faux stocks awarded to an individual employee, is decided by whim. So the precise accounting is meaningless and the amount of the bonus dependent not on the value of the paper, but on the mood or attitude of the supervisor.

Numbers are, indeed, precise. What we do with them often is more camouflage than calculation.

(A briefer version of this Wessay was used on my WBLF radio program in May, 2007.)

I'm Wes Richards, my opinions are my own, but you're welcome to them.

(c) 2007 WJR

Public Enemies

#246 Public Enemies

The President and Draft Dodger In Chief has come up with a "Public Enemies" list. But he hasn't disclosed all of those he put on it.

He did mention Osama and Company as "Public Enemy Number One." But that's where he stopped. Now it's entirely possible he stopped because he doesn't know which number comes next. (It's two, according to reliable authorities in the world of mathematics including retired bank president Paul Wolfowitz.)

But a raid on Rasputin Rove's secret files gives us a leg up on the rest of the bad boys. Herewith is the list, along with the reasons they're there.)

#2. Ted Kennedy (Has done nothing right since driving off a bridge.)

#3. Hugo Chavez (cut into Bush family oil profits by nationalizing everything in Venezuela but Wal-Mart.)

#4. The New York Times (No explanation necessary.)

#5. TIE: Bill and Hillary Clinton. (No explanation necessary.)

#7. The rest of the "Democrat Party" presidential candidates. (Including Al Gore) (Reasons vary.)

#8. TIE :John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani. (Not REAL Republicans.)

#10. ABC News (Spilled the secret beans on the plan to screw with Iran.)

#11. The UN (Islamist-kissing minority third world nations that want to loot the US.)

#13. The Jews (insufficient support for Israel.)

#14. This blog and the radio program associated with it (aid and comfort to the Democrats.)

#15. The Texas Rangers baseball team (only turned a profit when the Bush family sold interest.)

As soon as the Wessays team got this far, our agents were surprised by a $7.00 an hour security guard who turned them over to the Department of Justice for prosecution as perpetrators of a "third rate burglary." Hence, we don't know the rest of the list. But as soon as our guys (all ex-CIA a former actress from "Law & Order C.I" and The Real Giselle of the NYPD) get out of jail, we'll extend their tour of duty and send them back to Rove's safe.

The Roly Poly one cannot watch the closet at all times. Even with a hidden camera. Plus, if it was good enough for Nixon, it’s good enough for us.

At least we got into the top 15. To our astonishment and disappointment, we were not in the top ten. But at 14, we are in some pretty good company, though we probably would have put Verizon, Cablevision and the Red Sox higher than our own ranking.

We would also have thought the Washington Post, Canada, TGIF Fridays Restaurants, Colin Powell and Charles Darwin would have made the important end of the list, and maybe rap/hiphop music and Rolls Royce. But we have what we have.

So, while Frat Boy didn't name the rest of the names on the list, we've gone a ways toward doing that here.

Another public service from the column that asks the question, "What the hell's going on in this country, anyway."

I'm Wes Richards, my opinions are my own, but you're welcome to them.

(c) 2007 WJR

The No Legislator Left Behind Act

245 The No Legislator Left Behind Act

Why didn’t someone think of this sooner? It’s a way to make members of Congress, the state legislatures and various town and county and city governments WAY more responsible.

It’s the No Legislator Left Behind Act.

Why do we need it? Because the people you pay to make laws don’t actually make laws. No. They’re put together by staff and even more often by lobbyists.

Congress members, Senators and such may think of the stuff (well, sometimes they do,) but it’s the lobbyists who do the actual work.

Is that right? Of course not. Legislators should know what’s in those bills.

And this Act is how to make sure they do.

From now on, we must decree, that no legislator can vote on a bill until they have actually read it. (We don’t want to make them over work, so they don’t actually have to write legislation. After all, that’s so gauche. But from the moment this act becomes law, they’ll have to know what’s in the bills.

How do we know that they know? By giving them tests. Not too tough, understand. But tough enough so they can demonstrate the expertise that they claim all along to have.

So 65 is passing. Unless, of course, their name is among the sponsors. Then, passing is 85.

Standardized tests for anyone who gets to vote on a bill. Then, we can gauge more about our lawmakers than we now can. We’ll know more about them than mere financial disclosure. We’ll know more about them than is said in the campaign “literature.” We’ll know more about them than what local newspaper editorial writers and reporters let us know.

It may slow things somewhat (this crowd is in no danger of winning the Kentucky Derby, in the fastest of times to begin with.)

But after they take and pass the test, we’ll know what they know – and it will be more than the present level which often is nothing.

We can start remedial reading and thinking classes for these class clowns. We can publish the grades – passing and failing alike – on the internet.

It would be nice to know, for example whether, say Senator Kennedy (D-Mass) could recite the substance of 85 percent of his immigration bill. It would be nice if Representative King (R-NY) could receite and translate the substance of 85 percent of his Homeland Security bill.

It would be nice if anyone could intelligently discuss the specifics of ANY bill on which they have voted or planned to vote.

Is this a serious proposal?

Absolutely.

Does it have a chance of passing?

Absolutely not.

The Congressites would have to read it first. And we know no one does that.

Of course, there’s no reason we have to limit this to the legislative branch.

Do you think Supreme Court Justices actually read the rulings and decisions their names are on?

Or does the President actually read any of those executive orders he’s always issuing?

Not on your life. At least not yet.

(parts of this blog were used earlier as part of the author’s daily radio program on WBLF, Bellefonte/State College PA.)

I'm Wes Richards, my opinions are my own, but you're welcome to them.

(c) 2007 WJR

Floral Tribute

244 Floral Tribute

Some flowers should be named for diseases. That would comfort the sick and improve the description of some plants.

The first one that comes to mind is the Osteoporosis Violet. It’s kind of hook-shaped, but still has a pretty face. Think of the encouragement this could give to people with this awful condition. Their very own flower and mirror image.

But don’t stop there. How about the Emphysema Cactus? Kind of reminds you that every time you take a breath, there’s this prickly green thing standing there giving you encouragement. It’s learned to live on scarce little water. You learn to live on scarce little air.

How about the Melanoma Pansy? There it sits, it’s splotched little face looking up at you as you await surgery. It’s a bonding experience no skin cancer patient should miss.

Then, there’s the gallstone potato. Another mirror image. And you can be oh so glad your stones are his size. See? There’s always someone worse off than you are.

And what of the Jaundice Tulip? Another yellow fellow to keep you company while the docs work on your liver.

The Brain Tumor Turnip. Parkinson’s Eel Grass.

The Appendicitis Hibiscus? The Kidney Stone Pussy Willow? How warm and fuzzy!

The Alzheimer’s Dandelion becomes something else after it leaves the fly-away stage and turns into an actual flower. But still.

Just think: cut flowers, potted plants, boutonnieres, corsages. The variations are limitless.

It all sounds so unseemly. But wait. Hallmark or FDT or 1800-Flowers will come up with something like this before long. And it won’t be limited to actual flowers, either. The internet beckons.

You’ll get e-cards with lifelike pictures of the flowers and you will (optional at extra cost) find matching screen savers and offers of embroider-by-numbers versions. Beats those velvet Elvis pictures and Dali prints you have on your walls now.

Then, there are book covers, tote bags and magnetic stickers for your car.

And bumper stickers: “I may have a low white count, but my White Rose helps me though the day.” “That black thing in the middle of my daisy is the spot on my lung.”

Why they can even engrave these flowers and plants on your tombstone.

You think the marketing geniuses have covered all the bases? Obviously not. At least not yet.

I'm Wes Richards, my opinions are my own, but you're welcome to them.

(c) 2007 WJR

Moving Targets

243 Moving Targets

What is it about this woman that she has to move everything that isn’t nailed down… and even some stuff that is?

Just when you get used to seeing the kitchen clock to the right of the sink, she moves it to the left. No sooner have you gotten used to the new spot, when it lands somewhere else.

There are clocks in the bathroom, the bedroom, the basement, the living room. They don’t stay still for long.

It makes the change from Standard to Daylight time a hunting expedition.

Dining room placemats aren’t in the dining room. They started in a little sun room at the back of the house. Now, they’re in the kitchen. It’s been a month, and it’s just now getting easier to remember where they are instead of heading for the previous location and then thinking “oh, yeah. They’re in the kitchen now.”

About the only things that haven’t moved are the ones that were inconveniently located in the first place. Like the hair dryer. It’s under one of the two bathroom sinks. But not the sink of the user. No. It’s under the sink of the bald guy who doesn’t have any hair to dry. No room under her sink.

Around here, we wear slippers in the house, so as not to dirty the floors with street shoes.

Where are the street shoes? In the closet on the second floor. Or in the rack in the garage. Depends on the day. Sometimes on the hour.

This from someone whose motto is “always put stuff back in the same place so you’ll know where it is when you need it.”

Physician, heal theyself.

This said after a nightlong hunt for a set of keys.

The bedroom, normally orderly and spotless, was chaos. Boxes of jewelry were spread all over. Boxes and drawers were open and emptied. It looked like a cross between a burglary and the bargain bin at Costco the night after the annual clearance sale.

“Please check your handbag.”

“Sure. In a minute.” (rummage, rumamage.)

“May I check the drawers?” “Sure.”

(rummage, rummage.)

“Did you check your handbag?”

“I never put them there, but, yes, I will. In a minute.”

“How about in your winter coats? (does anyone need 16 winter coats?)

“I never leave them there, but you can go look.”

(rummage, rummage, rummage, rummage.)

“Did you check your handbag?”

“Not yet.”

(Rummage, rummage.)

“Might they be in the car?”

“No. And I won’t be able to sleep until I find them!”

“Did you check your handbag?”

“I will.”

“May I do it?”

“Sure.”

(rummage, rummage.)

“I think they’re stolen.”

“No one would steal your keys. Did you look in your handbag?”

“No. But I will. Just another minute.

“Did you drop them somewhere?”

“No. and can you help me lift this crate out of the closet?”

“Sure. What’s in it?”

“Handbags.”

(Who needs 32 handbags? Practically every woman alive.)

(Rummage, rummage.)

“Oh, here they are!” (in the 28^th handbag.)

Everything in its place.

Remember that. Otherwise, you’ll misplace stuff.

Unlike us.

I'm Wes Richards, my opinions are my own, but you're welcome to them.

(c) 2007 WJR

The Dime Novel

242 The Dime Novel

Here’s the ultimate inflation insult: the “dime novel” now costs ten bucks.

It’s not enough that a three cent stamp now costs 41 cents. It’s not enough that a song on a juke box can cost half a buck. It’s not enough that a quarter’s worth of gasoline now costs three bucks. But now, the price of a ten cent book has risen 1000%.

Don’t you love what the publicists tell you? Don’t you love the weasel-worm “justifications” that apologists offer?

Here’s a sample – a made-up one: “You have to understand that the cost of paper and of cover art is always rising. You have to understand we’ve enlarged the page size and the type – so even more paper, plus more ink! And the DISTRIBUTORS!!! Plus no one ever sells these things at sticker price, anyway.”

Oh boy. Put away the magnifying glass. Put away the “Itty Bitty Book Lite,” which never works, anyway, and I’ll put away the reading pillow. A nice chunky dime novel that’s self-illuminating, small enough to carry, but large enough to see is a dandy improvement, even though the recycled paper isn’t as nice as the usual thick newsprint.

Actually, this is all a lie. The book is not ten bucks. It’s $9.99. With the sales tax, it’s $10.58.

“Yes,” says the publicist, “the price will vary. Not every state charges sales tax on books. Right. There’s no tax in Delaware. Four other states have no sales tax, but they do have excise taxes. And almost everything there is a luxury.

So, let’s organize an excursion, an Atlantic City-style bus trip, to Delaware to buy tax free dime novels for a mere $9.99.

It’s been a long time since publishers have demanded big page counts so they can justify charging $28 for a hardcover book. What is truly astonishing is how many books don’t get sold, despite attractive titles, authors, covers and advance payments.

Many go right from the printing press to the “book for a buck” table at Barnes & Nobel. Saves a lot of promotional money, advertising and storage space.

Along with the price inflation, there’s variety inflation. Stuff that no one likes, cares about or will buy rolls out of the binding plants at a rate that would make tree killers like the New York Times and Staples green with envy.

At latest count, there were 24,346 titles that fall under the umbrella “self-help” or get rich quick. “How I made 20 billion dollars refilling Amway boxes” should be on everyone’s library shelf.

There are biographies of 110,238 people you never heard of, don’t need to know about and add nothing to your life. Hot off the press: The Daisy Cruz Story. Who? Exactly.

There are travel books about every possible location (even Delaware!)

And those canny book marketers never miss a trick. Since women writers of fiction sell far more books than men, there’s a (not too) secret push in publishing circles, to raise the cover price of books written by women.

The price of E-books has remained fairly stable. That is for two reasons: (1) No one likes them, and (2) it’s hard to bring your notebook computer or Palm Pilot into the bathroom. Not to mention dangerous.

I'm Wes Richards, my opinions are my own, but you're welcome to them.

(c) 2007 WJR